A preliminary account of patterns of endemism in Namibia's Sperrgebiet – the succulent karoo

Aim This study investigated spatial patterns of endemism in the flora of Namibia's succulent karoo in order to generate information for conservation planning. Location The study area, the Sperrgebiet, comprises the majority of Namibia's portion of the succulent karoo biome which is the south‐west corner of the country. This is an arid area that has been off limits to public access, farming and tourism for nearly a century due to restrictions imposed by the diamond industry. Methods Based on existing distribution records, areas of high concentrations of endemic plants were identified using numbers of endemics and weighted endemics according to area of occupancy. The resolution of the available data was quarter degree squares (15‐min intervals of latitude and longitude grids). Results At the scale of this study straight numbers of endemics generated similar results to the endemics weighted according to area of occupancy, which gives sparsely distributed species a higher weighting. Based on the current distribution records, 17.7% (184 species) of the Sperrgebiet's spermatophyte flora is endemic. The ‘hotspots of endemism’ comprised from north to south: Lüderitz‐Kowisberge, Klinghardt Mountains, Aurusberge‐Heioab, Witpütz, Skorpion and Obib‐Schakalsberge. Taking also areas into account that stand out because of their high proportion of local endemics, this adds Grillental and the central coastal area from Pomona to Baker's Bay to the areas of importance for plant endemism. Main conclusions The Sperrgebiet's endemic flora is special in taxonomic composition in that it does not present a subset of the total flora of this area, but shows a remarkably high representation of the families Mesembryanthemaceae and Liliaceae (sensu lato). Compared with other arid areas, the level of endemism in the Sperrgebiet is high, but not compared with the succulent karoo in general or other hotspots in the succulent karoo biome, such as the Richtersveld. The proportion of local endemics (13.5%) is high compared with some endemism hotspots in southern Africa. Hotspots of plant endemism provide an important tool to contribute to conservation planning studies. This study also highlighted the importance of centralized data bases without which these analyses would not have been possible. Further plant collecting is required to fill presently data‐deficient areas and studies at a finer spatial resolution taking habitat requirements into account are needed to elucidate some of the factors contributing to plant endemism in this area.     

Predicted avian responses to bioenergy development scenarios in an intensive agricultural landscape

Conversion of native prairie to agriculture has increased food and bioenergy production but decreased wildlife habitat. However, enrollment of highly erodible cropland in conservation programs has compensated for some grassland loss. In the future, climate change and production of second-generation perennial biofuel crops could further transform agricultural landscapes and increase or decrease grassland area. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) is an alternative biofuel feedstock that may be economically and environmentally superior to maize (Zea mays) grain for ethanol production on marginally productive lands. Switchgrass could benefit farmers economically and increase grassland area, but there is uncertainty as to how conversions between rowcrops, switchgrass monocultures and conservation grasslands might occur and affect wildlife. To explore potential impacts on grassland birds, we developed four agricultural land-use change scenarios for an intensively cultivated landscape, each driven by potential future climatic changes and ensuing irrigation limitations, ethanol demand, commodity prices, and continuation of a conservation program. For each scenario, we calculated changes in area for landcover classes and predicted changes in grassland bird abundances. Overall, birds responded positively to the replacement of rowcrops with switchgrass and negatively to the conversion of conservation grasslands to switchgrass or rowcrops. Landscape context and interactions between climate, crop water use, and irrigation availability could influence future land-use, and subsequently, avian habitat quality and quantity. Switchgrass is likely to provide higher quality avian habitat than rowcrops but lower quality habitat than conservation grasslands, and therefore, may most benefit birds in heavily cultivated, irrigation dependent landscapes under warmer and drier conditions, where economic profitability may also encourage conversions to drought tolerant bioenergy feedstocks.     

Predicting fine‐scale distributions of peripheral aquatic species in headwater streams

Headwater species and peripheral populations that occupy habitat at the edge of a species range may hold an increased conservation value to managers due to their potential to maximize intraspecies diversity and species' adaptive capabilities in the context of rapid environmental change. The southern Appalachian Mountains are the southern extent of the geographic range of native Salvelinus fontinalis and naturalized Oncorhynchus mykiss and Salmo trutta in eastern North America. We predicted distributions of these peripheral, headwater wild trout populations at a fine scale to serve as a planning and management tool for resource managers to maximize resistance and resilience of these populations in the face of anthropogenic stressors. We developed correlative logistic regression models to predict occurrence of brook trout, rainbow trout, and brown trout for every interconfluence stream reach in the study area. A stream network was generated to capture a more consistent representation of headwater streams. Each of the final models had four significant metrics in common: stream order, fragmentation, precipitation, and land cover. Strahler stream order was found to be the most influential variable in two of the three final models and the second most influential variable in the other model. Greater than 70% presence accuracy was achieved for all three models. The underrepresentation of headwater streams in commonly used hydrography datasets is an important consideration that warrants close examination when forecasting headwater species distributions and range estimates. Additionally, it appears that a relative watershed position metric (e.g., stream order) is an important surrogate variable (even when elevation is included) for biotic interactions across the landscape in areas where headwater species distributions are influenced by topographical gradients.     

Responses of the distribution of four epiphytic cyanolichens to habitat changes in subtropical forests

 蓝藻地衣是附生植物类群的重要组成部分, 在森林生态系统的环境监测和养分循环中发挥着重要作用。该研究在云南哀牢山亚热带森林系统的2种原生和6种次生森林群落中, 以粉缘绵毛衣(Leioderma sorediatum)、天蓝猫耳衣(Leptogium azureum)、网肺衣(Lobaria retigera)和双缘牛皮叶(Sticta duplolimbata) 4种常见蓝藻地衣为对象, 共设立120个样地, 调查了它们在3 600株树木0–2 m树干上的分布, 探讨其分布特征及与森林类群、宿主种类以及林龄等生境因子的关系。研究发现4种蓝藻地衣在森林群落间的分布模式明显不同。除双缘牛皮叶的盖度和频度在原生苔藓矮林中最高外, 其他3种蓝藻地衣的最高值均出现于次生林如厚皮香(Ternstroemia gymnanthera)林和滇山杨(Populus bonatii)林中; 而哀牢山地区广布的原生木果柯(Lithocarpus xylocarpus)林中, 4种蓝藻地衣极为少见。4种地衣都能生长于10多个树种上, 但明显表现出对厚皮香、滇山杨和硬壳柯(Lithocarpus hancei)等树种的偏好性, 以及对小花山茶(Camellia forrestii)等的排斥性。森林群落的林龄、胸径、最大胸径、林冠开阔度、基面积、树木密度和树种多样性等因子的变化均对4种附生蓝藻地衣的分布产生重要影响, 但在景观尺度上影响程度相对较小, 在不同森林群落内部却有各自的重要作用。其中, 林龄、林冠开阔度和宿主胸径是影响蓝藻地衣分布的最重要的生境因子。     

Biomass carbon density and carbon sequestration capacity in seven typical forest types of the Xiaoxing’an Mountains,China

森林生物碳储量作为森林生态系统碳库的重要组成部分,在全球碳循环中发挥着重要作用。以小兴安岭7种典型林型为研究对象,通过外业样地调查与室内实验分析相结合的方法,从林分尺度对林分生物量与碳密度进行计量,分析了林分生物碳储量的空间分配格局,并对林分年固碳能力与碳汇潜力进行了探讨。结果表明:小兴安岭不同林型从幼龄林到成熟林的乔木层碳密度增长速率为:蒙古栎(Quercus mongolica)林>兴安落叶松(Larix gmelinii)林>云冷杉(Picea-Abies)林>樟子松(Pinus sylvestris var.mongolica)林>山杨(Populus davidiana)林>红松(Pinus koraiensis)林>白桦(Betula platyphylla)林。7种典型林型不同龄组(幼龄林、中龄林、近熟林和成熟林)林分生物量碳密度分别为:红松林31.4、74.7、118.4和130.2 t·hm–2;兴安落叶松林28.9、44.3、74.2和113.3 t·hm–2;樟子松林22.8、52.0、71.1和92.6 t·hm–2;云冷杉林23.1、44.1、77.6和130.3 t·hm–2;白桦林18.8、35.3、66.6和88.5 t·hm–2;蒙古栎林25.0、20.0、47.5和68.9 t·hm–2;山杨林19.8、28.7、43.7和76.6 t·hm–2。红松林、兴安落叶松林、樟子松林和蒙古栎林在幼龄林时林分年固碳量较高,其他林型在成熟林时林分年固碳量较高。7种典型林型不同龄组的林分生物量碳密度均随林龄增长而增加,但不同林型的碳汇功能存在差异,同一林型不同林龄的生物量碳密度增幅差异也较大。林分年固碳量在0.4–2.8 t·hm–2之间,碳汇能力较强、碳汇潜力较大。尤其是小兴安岭目前林分质量较差,幼龄林和中龄林所占的比重较大,具有较大的碳汇潜力。研究结果可为森林经营管理及碳汇功能评价提供参考。     

An Approach to Integrating Environmental Considerations Within Managerial Decision‐Making

Recent environmental trends, including (1) an expansion of existing command and control directives, (2) the introduction of market‐based policy instruments, and (3) the adoption of extended producer responsibility, have created a need for new tools to help managerial decision‐making. To address this need, we develop a nonlinear mathematical programming model from a profit‐maximizing firm's perspective, which can be tailored as a decision‐support tool for firms facing environmental goals and constraints. We typify our approach using the specific context of diesel engine manufacturing and remanufacturing. Our model constructs are based on detailed interviews with top managers from two leading competitors in the medium and heavy‐duty diesel engine industry. The approach allows the incorporation of traditional operations‐planning considerations—in particular, capacity, production, and inventory—together with environmental considerations that range from product design through production to product end of life. A current hurdle to implementing such a model is the availability of input data. We therefore highlight the need not only to involve all departments within businesses but also for industrial ecologists and business managers to work together to implement meaningful decision models that are based on accurate and timely data and can have positive economic and environmental impact.     

两种龈下刮治和根面平整术对2型糖尿病伴慢性牙周炎疗效的比较

目的:比较一次法龈下刮治和根面平整术(FM-SRP)和常规的四分法龈下刮治和根面平整术(Q-SRP)治疗2型糖尿病伴慢性牙周炎的临床疗效,并观察慢性牙周炎治疗对2型糖尿病患者血糖控制的影响。方法:将48例2型糖尿病伴慢性牙周炎患者随机分为2组:FM-SRP组在l天内完成全口所有象限的刮治和根面平整,Q-SRP组每周进行1个象限的刮治,连续4周完成全口治疗。于治疗前、治疗3个月和6个月时,检测菌斑指数(PLI)、牙周探诊深度(PD)、临床附着水平(CAL)、探诊出血(BOP)及空腹血糖(FPG)与糖化血红蛋白(HbAlc)的变化。结果:有3例患者被剔除。与治疗前相比,2种治疗方式在3个月和6个月时的PLI、PD、CAL和BOP均有显著改善(P<0.05),FPG和HbAlc无显著性改变(P>0.05)。但各项指标的变化在2组间均无显著性差异(P>0.05)。结论:本组资料,FM-SRP和Q-SRP两种方法治疗2型糖尿病伴慢性牙周炎均可达到相同的临床效果,但对2型糖尿病患者血糖控制无明显影响。     

Stochastic epidemic models: A survey

This paper is a survey paper on stochastic epidemic models. A simple stochastic epidemic model is defined and exact and asymptotic (relying on a large community) properties are presented. The purpose of modelling is illustrated by studying effects of vaccination and also in terms of inference procedures for important parameters, such as the basic reproduction number and the critical vaccination coverage. Several generalizations towards realism, e.g. multitype and household epidemic models, are also presented, as is a model for endemic diseases.